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Séminaire de Jhon Jair GONZÁLEZ PULGARÍN

Séminaire de Jhon Jair GONZÁLEZ PULGARÍN

Séminaire de Jhon Jair GONZÁLEZ PULGARÍN

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Le dernier séminaire GAINS de l'année universitaire aura lieu le 02 juillet2024 de 10h30 à 12h00 en salle T204. Jhon Jair Gonzalez-Pulgarin (Le Mans Université) présentera "Ensuring the Sustainability of the US Pay-As-You-Go System" co-écrit avec Xavier Fairise, François Langot et Alexandre Popier.

Abstract: Two significant structural changes are currently impacting the United States economy and will continue to do  so in the coming decades: population aging and the rising average level of education. In this study, we introduce a heterogeneous agent model to explore the sustainability of the pension system within an aging population and its implications for wealth distribution. We analyze optimal reform strategies to ensure the pension system's sustainability, including potential adjustments to income tax rates, pension levels, and retirement age. Additionally, we consider the evolving educational attainment and its effects on career progression and employment experience. Our findings reveal that variations in income tax and pension rates increase distortions, leading to reduced work-related remuneration. Although increasing the retirement age mitigates these distortions, it presents challenges in balancing work and leisure time over the life cycle. Furthermore, the rise in educational attainment contributes significantly to GDP growth but has a minimal impact on fiscal budget sustainability. Finally, adjustments through tax increases or pension reductions are found to increase wealth inequalities, with the effect being more pronounced when the retirement age is raised. In terms on welfare, postponing the retirement age leads to the smallest reduction in retirees' welfare but also reduces young people's insurance needs. As a result, young people receive smaller inheritances, leading to welfare losses.

Un lien zoom est disponible pour ceux qui ne peuvent pas assister au séminaire en présentiel:

Meeting ID: 999 3873 5171
Passcode: 875830

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