Séminaire de Federico DI PACE
Séminaire de Federico DI PACESéminaire de Federico DI PACE
Le 26 novembre 2024
Le prochain séminaire du GAINS aura lieu le 26 novembre 2024 de 10h30 à 12h00 en salle T204. Federico Di Pace (CREST-ENSAI) présentera "Commodity Prices and Fiscal (Pro)Cyclicality" coécrit avec Luciana Juvenal (IMF) et Ivan Petrella (Collegio Carlo Alberto, University of Torino, University of Warwick, CEPR).
Abstract: Consensus holds that Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) engage in procyclical fiscal behavior. We emphasize that considering conditional responses to macroeconomic shocks is crucial when evaluating fiscal cyclicality, as neglecting this can result in significant biases. This study investigates the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on fiscal variables in EMDEs by exploiting major narrative episodes and the heterogeneous exposure of countries to these shocks. Our results reveal that, following an expansionary shift in the terms of trade, fiscal authorities raise government spending and moderately increase taxes, leading to an improvement in the primary balance. These findings contrast with conventional wisdom but align with the optimal policy response to export price shocks predicted by a multi-good small open economy model with incomplete financial markets. We also highlight the role of institutional quality in shaping fiscal policy responses.
Un lien zoom est disponible pour ceux qui ne peuvent pas assister au séminaire en présentiel:
https://univ-lemans-fr.zoom.us/j/95626400121?pwd=70QfrCk4jCYOzwJb7zLUZx6vkca4Qg.1
Meeting ID: 956 2640 0121
Passcode: 093358