Séminaire de Jacques MINLEND

Séminaire de Jacques MINLEND

Le 11 mars 2025

Le prochain séminaire du GAINS aura lieu le 11 mars 2025 de 10h30 à 12h00 en salle T204. Jacques Minlend (Le Mans Université) présentera "Does the European Low-Carbon Policy impact price uncertainty in fossil energy markets?".

Abstract: This paper aims to assess the potential effects of a low-carbon policy on price un-certainty in fossil energy markets. For this purpose, we propose text-as-data methods that rely on unsupervised machine-learning algorithms applied to European Union (EU) laws and newspapers. These methods are used to construct two monthly indices over the reference period 1997-2021: (i) a news-based index that reflects uncertainty about the regulatory framework of low-carbon policy as relayed in the press, and (ii) a law-based index that reflects structural changes in European low-carbon policy. Given the support for the carbon phase-out policy, we further examine the extent to which each index relates to price uncertainty dynamics in fossil energy markets. As a result, we find that an increase in the news-based index leads to a positive short run effect on price uncertainty. Similarly, we observe both dampening short-run and persistent effects of the law-based index on price uncertainty. Thus, stabilizing price uncertainty dynamics through regulations serves as a measure of the efficacy and resilience of European low-carbon policy. This result is robust to the consideration of macroeconomic factors.

Un lien zoom est disponible pour ceux qui ne peuvent pas assister au séminaire en présentiel:

https://univ-lemans-fr.zoom.us/j/98847787547?pwd=EkoapIwWlzJHDUB2eERDCXSUrUAWyI.1

Meeting ID: 988 4778 7547
Passcode: 475837