Séminaire de Stephane AURAY

Séminaire de Stephane AURAY

Le 17 mars 2026

Le prochain séminaire du GAINS aura lieu le 17 mars 2026 de 10h30 à 12h00 uniquement en visioconférence. Stéphane Auray (CREST-ENSAI & Rennes School of Business) présentera "When the Picket Line Gets Paid: UI, Strike Behavior, and Trust Fund Solvency".

Abstract:

In the United States, most states disqualify workers engaged in labor disputes from receiving unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, while New York and New Jersey recently shortened statutory waiting periods, creating quasi-experimental policy variation. We exploit these reforms using synthetic control and difference-in-differences designs to estimate the labor market effects of extending UI eligibility to striking workers. We find that expanding strike-related UI eligibility raises average wages by approximately 25–30 percent, with no systematic increase in strike frequency. The adjustment occurs primarily along bargaining and unemployment-duration margins rather than through large changes in strike incidence. To interpret these findings, we develop a dynamic search-and-matching model with endogenous strike initiation, duration, and settlement under partial experience rating. Motivated by the empirical evidence, the model shows that shortening the UI waiting period strengthens workers’ outside options during disputes, increasing negotiated wages. At the same time, firms partially internalize expected UI liabilities, leading settlement incentives to adjust endogenously and dampening changes in strike activity. Finally, we quantify the fiscal implications of the reform. Although UI outlays rise mechanically, experience-rated contributions and equilibrium wage responses partially offset the fiscal burden, implying smaller-than-anticipated effects on trust fund solvency. Overall, strike-related UI reforms reshape surplus division and the composition of UI financing in general equilibrium, even when aggregate strike activity remains largely unchanged.

Lien de la visioconférence : https://visio.numerique.gouv.fr/hli-jevp-yrd